четверг, 21 марта 2019 г.

What next for Brexit after Theresa May wins support in Parliament?

There are only two months to go before Brexit and nothing has been finalised about how we leave the EU.  Tuesday night’s vote saw MPs give their backing to proposals to replace the controversial Irish backstop in the Prime Minister’s withdrawal deal.  Theresa May is now pinning her hopes on fresh talks with EU leaders. However, Brussels has insisted it will not budge.  There will also need to be a second ‘meaningful vote’ in Parliament.  So, where do we go from here and why does it feel like Groundhog Day? Theresa May, pictured with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, will head back to Brussels for more talks (Picture: AFP) Heading to Brussels  MPs voted 317 to 301 in favour of replacing the backstop – the insurance policy designed to avoid a hard border in Ireland in the event of no deal.  Mrs May has vowed to seek ‘legally binding’ changes to the Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. Advertisement Advertisement  She will need to head back to Brussels to reopen negotiations but has not yet given a firm date for that to happen.  Any potential revised deal will return to the Commons on February 14 to be voted on.  There are obviously fears that any new deal could also be rejected by Parliament.  Unless Article 50 is extended (which requires approval from all the other EU states) then we are on course to crash out without a deal on March 29. European Council President Donald Tusk has already said the agreement is not up for further discussion (Picture: AFP) What will Brussels do?  Mrs May faces a formidable challenge convincing Brussels to re-open talks that took 18 excruciating months to conclude.  She says that parliament’s approval of the backstop amendment now gives her a ‘mandate’ to seek to obtain legally-binding changes to the withdrawal agreement.  However there seems to be little appetite in the EU to talk again.  Key figures in Brussels, including President of the European Council Donald Tusk, has said the deal struck last November is not open for renegotiation.  The European Parliament’s chief Brexit negotiator, Guy Verhofstadt, said there was ‘no majority to re-open or dilute’ the agreement.  French President Emmanuel Macron said it was already ‘the best agreement possible.’ Germany, arguably the most powerful nation in the EU, is yet to comment.  What could happen is she comes back with clarifications, dressed up as concessions.  Mr Tusk has said the EU might be willing to look at the political declaration again – part of the deal that makes a pledge on the future relationship between the UK and the EU. Advertisement Advertisement  He added they would ‘stand ready’ to consider any ‘reasoned request’ for an extension to the scheduled leave date.  Analysts have said Mrs May is essentially playing for time. She is returning to Brussels to argue for something she knows she can’t win.  It could possibly prove to her critics that it is her original deal, no deal or no Brexit. Labour party leader Jeremy